Twenty-Five Random Cosets in the Quarter Turn Metric

As the next step in my exploration of the quarter turn metric, after finishing a proof of an upper bound of 30, I decided to run 25 cosets all the way (until I have optimal solutions for all positions). Unlike my runs in the half turn metric in November of 2008, I went ahead and made the search phase run in parallel. In addition, I acquired a newer, faster machine (a Dell Studio XPS with an Intel i7 920 processor).

I decided to run the same 25 cosets I ran for the half turn metric. The results are summarized in the table below.

Sequence             9 10  11  12   13    14     15      16       17        18         19         20         21         22       23
B3L1F1L2D1B2R1B1L3U2 0  0  20 435 4622 43936 400458 3554875 30726915 256996075 1848319413 7171928278 7868910283 2321690801  5852689
  L3F2R1D3U1B3U3F2U3 4 18 128 871 6276 48805 400949 3363941 28420393 235773014 1717097803 6966696841 8001159475 2548330910  7129372
L3F1L2U1B2D2F1D1L2U2 0  2  28 326 3218 29873 269750 2443411 21998773 193687590 1515611814 6774881810 8208751853 2783171388  7578964
F3D2R1D1U3L1B1L2R1U1 0  0   2 108 1306 13748 143140 1446301 14285392 137005569 1184534971 6226351280 8543651779 3389397394 11597810
  L3F3D1R2F1U1B3D1U1 0  2  64 552 4407 37681 324904 2824246 24582278 210125809 1586499896 6807864157 8134902424 2733361953  7900427
  R3D3B3R1D3L3B2U3R1 0  2  14 120 1353 15271 158651 1592557 15542316 147004809 1249519538 6337847456 8476767605 3267754185 12224923
  L3D1L2B1U2R1F2L2R2 0  0  10 165 1849 19252 190649 1837650 17403365 159611091 1305114237 6349921969 8417750315 3242824273 13753975
R3F2R1B1L1U1B2D2R2F3 0  0  16 136 1344 15030 160964 1619156 15853901 149906827 1274339923 6416176539 8453617560 3186496712 10240692
  L3U2B1U2L3U1F2U3F1 0  0  12 278 2542 24252 226234 2072000 18834256 168604656 1360216959 6494240351 8363562099 3089272863 11372298
  R3U3B3F1L3B2D1U1R1 0  2   8  64  973 11782 123788 1269606 12757460 124710914 1113344522 6107875712 8613765558 3520346320 14222091
F3L1D1U2B3R2D1B1F1U3 0  0   2  48  743  9095 103868 1139279 11966855 120510431 1097528968 6098680603 8631302454 3533874944 13311510
R3U1L3D3B1U1F2R3F2U3 0  0  12 144 1571 16751 171103 1684988 16305044 153021226 1288352531 6403187153 8438268848 3196304138 11115291
  F3U3L1R3D3R2D2R1B1 0  2  26 256 2818 27191 258215 2387216 21788701 193356616 1516049613 6761646313 8208096006 2796796806  8019021
L3D2U3R2F3R2B2D1R3F1 0  2   8  94 1357 15388 161328 1636452 16082389 152169746 1284070995 6386845640 8442128854 3213547078 11769469
R3D1F1D2U3L3U2R3B3R1 0  0   0  28  452  5941  74567  858139  9375111  97990667  936309256 5732489523 8790779495 3922870102 17675519
R3U3L3U1F1L1R1D3U2F3 0  2  32 651 6444 55272 452489 3663211 30130097 243818320 1741988126 6979191340 7973086302 2527485604  8550910
R3U3F1D3R3U2L3F1R3U1 0  0   4  76 1154 12122 130610 1328294 13274203 128193269 1129470997 6106442943 8595872682 3518237696 15464750
  B3L1R2B1U3B3U2L3U3 0 20 140 956 7571 57105 449289 3610890 29809049 241674619 1741445345 7004878190 7976199085 2503992620  6303921
B3F3D3L3U2F1L3R3U3L2 0  0   6 154 1567 16877 173601 1707376 16407077 153065961 1280208756 6366984112 8444147246 3232439920 13276147
B3D1F1U1F2L3B1U3R3U3 0  0   2  34  606  7637  87012  953861 10176967 104433060  979968969 5823677299 8745900801 3825142509 18080043
  F3L2F3D1F3L1U1F3R2 0  0  32 259 2264 21355 198612 1861131 17405107 159635838 1313803665 6418470686 8410951706 3174225131 11853014
  F3L3U1F2L2R2D2F1R2 0  0   4  68  981 11807 129580 1362657 13826184 135112316 1189012659 6288524236 8541002353 3329203316 10242639
R3D3R2U3L3D3F1U2F1U2 0  4  38 274 2494 23995 226344 2125096 19534219 175011016 1394117568 6515323270 8328354319 3061730745 11979418
  L3D2R3B1L1R2U3L3F1 0  4  54 585 5290 44888 375532 3189104 27138733 226901366 1665321628 6893841573 8054156025 2630236880  7217138
  R3B1R2U1F2L3U3L3U1 0  0  28 381 3291 29680 266393 2380842 21349305 187541721 1461764900 6603028442 8260861990 2961233334  9968493
Each coset took about five hours to run to a phase one distance of 21 on my new i7 920 box, and left between 104 and 863 positions (an average of 373) unresolved (that could have been distance 24 or distance 22). I solved each of these using my QTM optimal solver; this took an average of about 14 minutes per position single-threaded. (Note that these positions were substantially harder than an "average" position because we knew their distance was at least 22.) Running eight positions at a time on my box meant that finishing each coset took an average of an additional eleven hours, for a total of about sixteen hours per coset.

The big surprise is that *no* distance 24 or greater positions were found. In the corresponding search in the half turn metric, we found eight new positions at a distance of 20 (equal to the furthest-known distance); in this experiment, of the same 487,710,720,000 positions but in a different metric, we did not find even a single position whose distance was within two of the furthest-known distance. Thus, it appears that distance-24 positions in the QTM are probably significantly more rare that distance-20 positions in the HTM.

Also interesting is the fact that in the half-turn metric, the trivial coset had a bound of 18, one less than the bound of the median coset. In the quarter-turn metric, the trivial coset has a bound of 24, one greater than the bound of the median coset.

If we consider the trivial coset, it has a lower bound of 24, and the greatest distance of any other coset from that coset is 13, so we can directly infer a bound on the overall cube group of 37. Yet for most of the cosets above, including the first one, for example, the greatest distance of any other coset to that coset is 11, so we can directly infer a bound on the overall cube group of 34. Further, we can combine the results from the two cosets F3U3L1R3D3R2D2R1B1 and L3F2R1D3U1B3U3F2U3 (combined with a small optimization about which we will not go into detail here) to tighten this bound to 33.

Yet, this is not a good technique to tighten the overall bound, because proving each of these cosets to be 23 takes a long time, primarily because of the hundreds of individual positions that need to be independently optimally solved. It is faster to run more cosets more quickly at a shallower depth and combine those results. At a phase one depth of 19, each coset takes about five minutes and a bound of 25 is found (with some help from a two-phase solver to reduce a few remaining positions from 26 to 24).

In comparing the overall distribution with that of a set of random positions from my position-at-a-time optimal solver, we see these numbers:

      25 cosets      Rokicki
 9            4
10           60
11          690
12         7063
13        66493
14       614734
15      5658030
16     51912279            1
17    474974090 0.001     23 0.001
18   4255862526 0.009    284 0.008
19  34174013052 0.070   2339 0.069
20 162036995716 0.332  11305 0.333
21 208923947117 0.428  14551 0.428
22  77509967622 0.159   5468 0.161
23    276700524 0.001     19 0.001
   ------------        -----
   487710721000        33990
This is very good agreement.

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Wonderful Results

These are wonderful results - my congratulations as always. As I did recently with the face turn metric, I thought I would compare Tom's results with a branching factor analysis.  The quarter turn metric has been calculated out to 13q.  The branching factor from 12q to 13q is about 9.325960353 (I know that's a silly number of significant digits!).  If we project out a little further using that branching factor, we get the following;
distance from
Start              proportion of          proportion of
                     positions               positions

                 Tom's best results        estimated from
                                          branching factors

   17q                0.000973885            0.000951820
   18q                0.008726203            0.008876632
   19q                0.070070252            0.082783114
   20q                0.332239972            0.772032040
So Tom's results for 17q are ever so slightly too high, but well within any reasonable confidence interval (remember that he is sampling).  His results for 18q are right on.  His results for 19q are a bit under the results from projecting by branching factors, and I would suspect that his 19q results are much closer to the true value than are the results from projecting by branching factors.  Projecting by branching factors gets progressively less accurate as you get further from Start.  And finally, Tom's results for 20q are much lower than the results from projecting by branching factors.  This is the point in the distribution of Cube positions where the branching factor begins decreasing rapidly and projecting by branching factor ceases to have any value.  I'm sure that Tom's 20q results are very close to the true value, and the branching factor estimate for 20q is of very little benefit.

0.77 of 20q? You forget parit

0.77 of 20q? You forget parity: the value of 20q is surely smaller than 0.5. I got the following table, where the first two values are by definition and the branch factor is as above.

                                                      -19
             0, 1, 0.231203163852020375738772647232 10


                                                      -18
            1, 12, 0.277443796622424450886527176678 10


                                                       -17
            2, 112, 0.258742984748652573289111054250 10


                                                       -16
           3, 1044, 0.241302681738281750909973364133 10


                                                       -15
           4, 9733, 0.225037924296379221315970374697 10


                                                        -14
           5, 90773, 0.209869475990944353247738250126 10


                                                        -13
          6, 846543, 0.195723441239639322662932673372 10


                                                         -12
          7, 7894827, 0.182530905315326056922400669649 10


                                                         -11
         8, 73626847, 0.170227598616496261648919605458 10


                                                          -10
         9, 686641052, 0.158753583565805279790588108355 10


                                                           -9
        10, 6403587223, 0.148052962600707643944224505336 10


                                                            -8
        11, 59719600476, 0.138073605740760991700097868726 10


                                                            -7
       12, 556942619000, 0.128766895596745517318014675152 10


                                                             -6
       13, 5194024145439, 0.120087481554932835744972231744 10


                                                             -5
      14, 48439207742311, 0.111992980845075555455103227262 10


      15, 451737303025392, 0.0000104443093689449587500635719876


      16, 4212464311069737, 0.0000973935076333044539497521417659


      17, 39248784999926396, 0.000907444326933070196225897692910


      18, 362880837766530207, 0.00838991977928935071807426768604


      19, 3126954595499356336, 0.0722961795701065778628458253014


      20, 15739227784233263070, 0.363895926030235472204952142914


      21, 18438520144811719293, 0.426304419422968240195280772761


      22, 5517687699047627759, 0.127570685316718597200179588404


      23, 18893030803961200, 0.000436812849662950963668516766742


                                                             -6
      24, 15772973190859, 0.364676130507967174041586874254 10


                                                            -9
        25, 13114646410, 0.303214774289155112865829829305 10


                                                          -12
         26, 10904309, 0.252111063035497987451159955587 10


                                                        -15
           27, 9067, 0.209620352683383013441803545119 10


                                                      -18
            28, 8, 0.174291011786403333503706171613 10


                                                      -21
            29, 0, 0.144916065642781425848913170667 10


                                                      -24
            30, 0, 0.120491962644175918373260373910 10

28q!!

What method you used to estimate 22q and up? And does the above suggest a diameter of 28q??

estimate

The estimate predict 28q, but we know almost for certain that it is 26q. It is only an estimate, and maybe a stupid one, but at least one that takes parity into account. Here is my Maple worksheet.
> Digits := 30;
> f := proc (n) option remember; if n=0 then 1.0 elif n=1 then 12.0 else
> (21626001637244928000-add(f(n-2*i),i=1..floor(n/2))) *
> (1 - exp(-9.325960353*f(n-1) / 21626001637244928000)) fi end;
> for i from 0 to 30 do i, round(f(i)), f(i)/43252003274489856000; od;
> for i from 0 to 20 do i, f(i)/43252003274489856000; od;
> 

Thanks again

well! Thanks again.

I am very impressed by your contributions to this forum. Thank you.

Well, thanks for your complim

Well, thanks for your compliment. So it seems that there is still some study that can be done to find good estimates for the number of positions on some distance.