Number of 4x4x4 positions for up to 5 moves
After hearing about this paper which talks about the size of God's number for nxnxn cubes, I was thinking about what we currently know about God's algorithm for the 4x4x4 and realized that I couldn't seem to find any partial distance distributions on the 4x4x4 on the web.
So I've run my own analyses to get the number of positions up to 5 moves from the solved state. I have done this for six metrics. First, I have "single-slice" metrics where a move is only allowed to turn a single layer. Second, I have twist metrics where a move is only allowed to twist the cube along one plane. This is sometimes called face-turn metric because a face layer (possibly along with additional adjacent layers) is (are) turned with respect to the rest of the cube. Finally I also used what I termed "block turns" where some block of one or more adjacent layers (not necessarily including a face layer) are turned with respect to the rest of the cube. For each of these, I also considered whether or not a move must be restricted to quarter-turns only.
The tables give the number of positions at each distance from solved, as well as the cumulative number of positions up to the given distance. The tables also include the branching factor (b.f.) or the ratio of the number of positions at one distance with that of the previous distance. Of course, this is for a 4x4x4 where the four center pieces for each face are considered indistinguishable. Also, the orientation of the puzzle is considered not to matter. (I used moves that kept a particular corner piece fixed to ensure I didn't count positions more than once.) My numbers only go up to 5 moves, but it's a start.
single-slice turns (half-turns allowed) moves positions b.f. cumulative pos. 0 1 1 1 36 36 37 2 999 27.75 1036 3 27186 27.2132 28222 4 738096 27.1499 766318 5 20000066 27.0968 20766384 single-slice turns (only quarter-turns allowed) moves positions b.f. cumulative pos. 0 1 1 1 24 24 25 2 450 18.75 475 3 8328 18.5067 8803 4 154035 18.4960 162838 5 2846464 18.4793 3009302 twists (half-turns allowed) moves positions b.f. cumulative pos. 0 1 1 1 27 27 28 2 567 21 595 3 11742 20.7090 12337 4 243152 20.7079 255489 5 5026667 20.6729 5282156 twists (only quarter-turns allowed) moves positions b.f. cumulative pos. 0 1 1 1 18 18 19 2 261 14.5 280 3 3732 14.2989 4012 4 53379 14.3031 57391 5 763386 14.3012 820777 block turns (half-turns allowed) moves positions b.f. cumulative pos. 0 1 1 1 54 54 55 2 2070 38.3333 2125 3 78649 37.9947 80774 4 2973289 37.8045 3054063 5 111963451 37.6564 115017514 block turns (only quarter-turns allowed) moves positions b.f. cumulative pos. 0 1 1 1 36 36 37 2 972 27 1009 3 25962 26.7099 26971 4 693356 26.7066 720327 5 18497026 26.6775 19217353
Finally, I note that it's now been 5 years since I announced that 79 moves suffice.